Data of Covid-19 infection in Italy and mathematical models

Luigi Togliani

Abstract


In this paper I consider some data of Covid-19 infection in Italy from the 20th of February to the 29th of June 2020. Data are analyzed using some fits based on mathematical models. This analysis may be proposed to students of the last class of the Liceo Scientifico in order to debate a real problem with mathematical tools.

Keywords


logistic; sigmoid; epidemic

Full Text:

PDF

References


Verhulst, P. F. (1838). “Notice sur la loi que la population suit dans son accroissement”. Correspondance Mathématique et Physique de l’Observatoire de Bruxelles (4): 111-121.

Gompertz, B. (1825). “On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and a new mode of determining the value of Life Contingencies”. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London 115: 513-585.

Makeham, W. M. (1860). “On the law of mortality and the construction of annuity tables”. J. Inst. Actuaries and Assur. Mag. 6: 301-310.

Bacaër, N. (2008). “Verhulst et l’équation logistique en dynamique des populations”. hal-01562340: 24-26.

Ausloos, M. (2011). “Gompertz and Verhulst frameworks for growth and decay description”. arXiv:1109.1269v1 [physics.bio-ph] 25 Aug 2011: 1-24.

Choi, B.-J. (2014). Statistical Analysis, Modeling, and Algorithms for Pharmaceutical and Cancer Systems. Graduate Theses and Dissertations: 1-96.

Tong, C.-Vendettuoli M. (2017). “Parametrizations of the four-parameter-logistic curve in software for estimating relative potency”: 1-21.

Fiorentini, G. (2020). “Comportamento logistico dell'infezione Covid-19 in Italia al 7 marzo 2020”: 1-2.

Malato, G. (2020). “Covid-19 infection in Italy. Mathematical models and predictions”. https://towardsdatascience.com/covid-19-infection-in-italy-mathematical-models-and-predictions-7784b4d7dd8d (last access: 2020-07-05).

De Maria, A.; Scarpa, F.; Tonelli, F. (2020). “Un modello predittivo dello sviluppo del covid-19”.

https://life.unige.it/modello-predittivo-covid-19 (last access: 2020-07-05).

De Maria, A.; Scarpa, F.; Tonelli, F. (2020). “Covid-19 in numeri, indici, variazioni”.

https://life.unige.it/index.php/covid19-in-numeri (last access: 2020-07-05).




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23756/sp.v8i2.547

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2020 Luigi Togliani

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Science & Philosophy - Journal of Epistemology, Science and Philosophy. ISSN 2282-7757; eISSN  2282-7765.